After the tragicomic events surrounding the mondo bizarro Likud "internal referendum" and the almost Pythonesque hunt for a far-rightist minister who went into hiding to avoid being served his dismissal papers, the Cabinet passed the disengagement 14-7 last Sunday. Some ministers (Avigdor "Rasputin" Lieberman among them) resigned, none of them will be missed by yours truly. This leaves us with a minority government, with Labor unofficially offering a safety net that "will be proportionate to teh extent of the disengagement".
Now either Sharon really really means business, or he's terribly good at dissembling. The Jerusalem Post just published a detailed time table.
July 2004: Army begins preparing for withdrawal from security installations in Gaza.August 2004 through July 2005: Voluntary evacuations of Jewish settlers, according to compensation arrangements.
October 2004: Israeli target for working out understandings with international organizations, like the World Bank, on the transfer of property in Gaza to the Palestinians.
February 2005: Sharon to bring to his Cabinet the first of four votes on evacuating settlements.
July 2005: The last of the four Cabinet votes.
Aug. 14, 2005: Deadline for settlers to voluntarily leave Gaza and the four West Bank enclaves. Only security forces and settlers who have refused to leave remain. Army declares the area a closed military zone.
Sept. 1, 2005: Army begins forceful evacuations of remaining settlers.
Sept. 15, 2005: Forceful evacuation of settlers ends.
Sept. 30, 2005: Army to complete military withdrawal, although it may remain in narrow corridor along Gaza's border with Egypt [the "Philadelphi corridor"].
As for compensation:
- Any "settlers" who voluntarily leave before August will be given compensation payments plus a "bonus"
- Those who leave voluntarily between Aug. 2004 and Aug. 14, 2005 will be given compensation payments, part immediate, part deferred
- Those who will leave later (voluntarily or manu militari) may or may not get some compensation payments
Has, in the words of that other warrior-statesman, the die truly been cast? (Alea iacta est?)
Those skeptical that Sharon would ever evacuate the Gaza strip settlements should keep in mind that, when Menachem Begin z"l agreed to evacuate the Sinai settlements as part of the peace deal with Egypt, he entrusted the task to none other than Ariel Sharom --- who accomplished a full evacuation without bloodshed. There is much more to this wily warrior than meets the eye.
I don't know if the analogy fits since that move was a bilaterally agrred upon one, while the Gaza withdrawel is clearly a unilateral move (and one which was even "regretted" to some extent by the PA). But he means it, that's clear.
Posted by: Michael Cosyns | June 11, 2004 at 01:03 AM